PTA Spot Prices Remain Weak And Should Not Be Blindly Pursued.

There is no improvement in fundamentals, and futures are still rising.

Since December 2014, spot prices of PTA have continued to decline.

The trend is obviously stronger than the spot market, thus making futures price change from premium to premium, and the scope of premium rises gradually.

As of January 16th, futures were 255 yuan / tonne higher than spot prices.

Under the background of excess capacity, the increase in supply is

The main reason for the drop in spot prices is that the drop in cost caused by PX's decline is another important factor in the decline of PTA's stock market. The decline of polyester production and marketing also to some extent has dragged down the spot price of PTA.

With the Spring Festival approaching, downstream polyester,

Construction will usher in a downward cycle.

According to CCFEI statistics, the production capacity of polyester products suspended from December 2014 to Spring Festival (February 18th) totaled 6 million 50 thousand tons, accounting for 13.7% of current polyester production capacity.

Under the weak market atmosphere, the increase of polyester repair capacity is bound to create pressure on the depressed PTA spot.

PTA cash production cash flow converted from the current PX price is still positive, and the probability that PTA spot enterprises take the initiative to limit production is still relatively small.

If PTA maintains its current supply level, PTA spot prices will continue to decline as downstream demand decreases.

Crude oil trend uncertainty increases

The crude oil market is another important factor affecting the trend of PTA price.

Recently, WTI and Brent crude oil hit a $45 / barrel line and began to stabilise, and picked up slightly, which has boosted the PTA price.

From the perspective of crude oil, the number of crude oil drilling platforms operated in the United States has been declining for weeks, and the US shale oil company has been closed down. The impact of falling oil prices on shale oil industry is beginning to show, indicating that the current price of crude oil has been under the cost of shale oil (at least part of shale oil).

The current price of crude oil may not be far from the bottom, but it is too early to say that the trend is reversed.

One thing is for sure, the uncertainty of crude oil trend is increasing, and the probability of relatively low oscillation is relatively high.

Accustomed to the decline in crude oil driven PTA market thinking needs some adjustment.

On the whole, the PTA spot price will maintain a weak pattern when the downstream demand weakens and PTA enterprises have no intention of reducing production.

But the stabilization of crude oil has boosted the price of PTA futures, and with the PTA's record low, the increase in the bottom of the fund also has a certain support for the price.

Therefore, in the space interleaving, PTA will turn to low oscillation.

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Near the Spring Festival, cotton growers and ginning plants suddenly became busy in parts of Hebei.

In January 19th, a lot of ginning plants in Cangzhou, Hengshui, Baoding and other places in Hebei reflected the recent boom in the sale of cotton farmers, mainly due to the approaching of the Spring Festival. Most of the cotton farmers in Hebei had the habit of concentrating their sales before the Spring Festival.

Up to now, Hebei cotton seed cotton sales progress is around 75%, and it is expected that sales will be completed by about 90% before the Spring Festival.

In January 19th, the boss of a ginning factory in Cangzhou said that the purchase amount of seed cotton has reached tens of thousands of pounds recently, and it can be around 100 thousand pounds at some time, which is more than 50% higher than that in December 2014.

Their plants are now open to purchase, and the seed cotton purchased is mainly white cotton grade 4 and light polluted cotton grade 2, but mixed grade and mixed phenomenon are more. Seed cotton purchase price is 2.90-3.15 yuan / Jin line.

According to a large cotton farmer in Baoding, it sold all cotton stocks on the two day of the weekend, with an average of more than 39%, and most of them reached 4 level of white cotton, with an average price of 3.07 yuan / Jin.

"The price is not low enough to sell."

The cotton grower said.

Similar to the busy situation before cotton farming Festival, some of the recent ginning plants were also lively.

According to the Cangzhou enterprises, there are 17-18 400 type enterprises in the region purchasing cotton seed and 200 type 10-12, an increase of about 20% compared with the middle of December 2014.

The head of the enterprise said, "now we are busy with three things.